Europe's defense-industrial mobilization for Ukraine leads today's forecasts, with Germany's €4B package and the new Rheinmetall-Destinus joint venture signaling a shift toward scaled autonomous weapons production, while record-low Arctic sea ice confirms an accelerating melt season and Sahel displacement continues its alarming trajectory.

The base rate of large anti-censorship protests in Russia over VPN or internet restrictions is effectively zero. Since 2012, every round of tightening — site blocks, the 2017 VPN ban, 2022 wartime censorship escalation — has produced adaptation, not protest. Fact-checking confirmed that 'blocking of VPN services has become more frequent since the full-scale war' and a '2026 new wave' of restrictions is underway, but also confirms the pattern of compliance and workarounds rather than mobilization. The sociologist (Brier=0.05, excellent track record) assigned 0.72, and the Skeptic confirmed at 0.72 (risk score 74). I push UP to 0.82 for three reasons: (1) my social sector Brier is 0.050 with an under-prediction bias of 22pp, requiring upward adjustment; (2) the current wartime repression environment — with severe penalties for anti-war speech and 15+ year prison terms for protest — makes public mobilization over VPN access extraordinarily unlikely; (3) Psychohistory: Russian citizen adaptation to information controls is deeply embedded across the post-Soviet period. Anti-regime protests have only been triggered by acute political crises (election fraud 2011–12, Navalny arrest 2021, partial mobilization 2022), never by internet restrictions per se. The 30-day horizon is well-calibrated — this is essentially forecasting that a non-event (protest) will continue to not occur under conditions strongly suppressing it.