A widening Black Sea war on grain logistics dominates today's outlook: simultaneous strikes on Russian and Ukrainian export ports are set to keep ~25% of global wheat trade impaired for months, while Turkey's proposed strike moratorium looks set to fail for lack of any monitoring mechanism. Alongside, an intensifying Ukrainian deep-strike campaign inside Russia (near-certain to continue) and grinding Russian territorial gains define a Russia-Ukraine war still firmly in escalation mode.

This is where my own track record justifies deviating sharply upward from the analyst. Forecast memory shows FOUR near-identical resolved forecasts (deep drone strikes on Russian oil/energy/production sites, Apr-May 2026), ALL resolved CORRECT at final P=0.95 with excellent calibration. The operational pattern is well-established, and my fact-check confirms an ongoing, intensifying deep-strike campaign (strikes on Taman terminal, sustained Azov operations). The Russia-Ukraine density matrix assigns 98% to 'long range strikes increase.' The military analyst's 0.69 (Skeptic risk 74) is badly under-calibrated against this base rate. I set 0.88 rather than 0.95 only to respect my ~9pp military overestimation bias and the specific 300km/satellite-visible resolution bar; absent that discount the historical evidence supports ~0.93. Pillars: force balance, threat capability, network theory (rear-area logistics targeting).