Widening wars on two fronts dominate the outlook: Russia's high-tempo missile campaign against Ukrainian cities and Kyiv's accelerating strikes on Russian Black Sea oil ports both look set to continue, while a widening US-Iran conflict — including strikes on Kuwaiti infrastructure — keeps Gulf energy and shipping risk elevated even as Brent trades near $89. Beijing's looming rare-earth controls add a slower-burning industrial-supply shock beneath the immediate security shocks.

I inverted the framing for a confident low-probability call: the proposal's 0.22 is P(FID within 12 months). The base rate for FID on a multi-thousand-km, multi-country, multi-billion-dollar gas pipeline within a year of a political endorsement is low — such projects (comparable to the long-stalled Trans-Saharan pipeline) typically require years of financing, feasibility, and multilateral coordination. ECOWAS backing is a political milestone, not a financing commitment. The climatologist's implicit judgment (0.22 that FID happens) is directionally right but I nudge slightly lower to 0.18 given the demanding capital environment; note climatologist sector weight is very low (0.04), so I rely on structural base rates rather than the analyst's framing. This gives environment-sector coverage with a genuinely forecastable, out-of-dead-zone call.