Bank of Japan will hike rates at least once more within 12 months
With Japan's 10-year JGB yield touching 3% for the first time in three decades amid a global bond rout and an oil shock (Japan imports ~90% of oil), the BOJ is likely to tighten again rather than let bond-market pressure destabilize the yen and inflation expectations. Resolution: BOJ raises its policy rate at least once within 365 days.
Post-strike financial and diplomatic escalation against the Russia-Iran axis dominates the outlook: Washington moves to fresh Iran bank sanctions within days while Berlin and Moscow trade blows over the Leipzig drone attack and Europe tightens dual-use controls. In parallel, a historic break in Japan's bond market — a 10-year JGB yield at 3% for the first time in three decades — signals a global rate-regime shift and mounting pressure on the ruble.
I verified the anchor fact: the 10Y JGB yield has hit ~3% for the first time in ~30 years amid a deepening global bond rout, and WTI at $90 confirms the imported-inflation channel. This is a clear regime break from the post-QQE era. The economist carries maximum reliability weight in economics (weight 1.00, Brier 0.24). A 3% long-end yield with wage/CPI persistence gives the BOJ strong incentive to validate market pricing rather than fight it, and external economist consensus points to further hikes. The Skeptic passed at 0.74. I apply a modest downward correction for my own tendency to overestimate (overall +19pp bias; economics Brier 0.24 is acceptable but not immune) and for BOJ's historically gradualist reaction function — a full year gives ample room, but the BOJ can also pause if global yields stabilize or the yen strengthens. The 12-month window and the clear structural shift keep this well above the dead zone at 0.73. Pillars: Bayesian inference (yield regime shift), psychohistory (end of deflation era), monetary-policy trajectory.