Russia's renewed winter energy war on Ukraine and an intensifying widening of Xi's PLA purge headline today's outlook, as a catastrophic Nepal flood (760+ dead) settles into a prolonged displacement emergency and NATO institutionalizes Ukraine's drone-warfare lessons.

I verified the current state: web search confirms the purge is actively WIDENING — six senior PLA officers were just removed from the NPC, and MIT SSP/Fravel analysis describes 'unprecedented churn' affecting commanders and commissars across services, continuing into 2026. This is confirmation-stage evidence, not speculation. The self-reinforcing dynamic is well-grounded in selectorate theory: Xi (BVI 2, patient/structured) rarely reverses course publicly and continues until loyalty is secured; the 2023-24 rocket-force purges spread across three successive waves removing a dozen-plus generals, a direct analogy. I classify this as geopolitics/domestic governance rather than military (avoiding my failing military-capability model — this is a political-loyalty forecast, not a force-balance one). Three analysts reached consensus (0.72-0.78). Given the campaign is demonstrably ongoing and expanding, a further senior removal within 90 days is more likely than not; I set 0.76, just above the mid-point of the consensus. Pillars: regime dynamics, historical cycles.