A lethal European heat dome (1,300+ deaths and climbing) headlines the day's outlook, set against an intensifying Russia-Ukraine air-defense arms race as Moscow scrambles to shield refineries from Ukrainian drones — while AI-sovereignty fault lines widen with Austria's bid to host Anthropic.

Skeptic rated 78 and kept P=0.72. This is the deployment-side complement to the production forecast (idx 1) and tests a more concrete, shorter-horizon behavior. Russia's established pattern after successful deep strikes is to thicken point defense around high-value rear nodes rather than eliminate launch capability — a robust base rate. The military analyst's debate note correctly flags friction: redeploying scarce systems from the front is feasible but not frictionless, and some moves stay non-visible. I weight that caveat and the 30-day window, landing slightly above the Skeptic at 0.76 given Putin's explicit public order and acknowledged Volga-area penetration, which raise the political imperative for visible action. My military track record runs ~6pp hot, so I avoid pushing higher. Pillars: military_doctrine + force_balance + arms_trade_procurement.