Victory Day risk dominates today's outlook: Moscow is poised for sweeping GPS and mobile shutdowns to defeat Ukrainian drones, while sustained US strikes on Iran and a closed Strait of Hormuz keep Middle East energy markets locked in crisis — with no Iranian shipping concession in sight before month-end.

Strong supporting evidence: (1) Forecast memory shows a similar Russia VPN restrictions forecast at P=0.95 RESOLVED CORRECTLY (Brier 0.0025) — well-calibrated precedent supports high confidence; (2) Roskomnadzor's 2030 roadmap is publicly stated state intent; (3) ASBI/DPI infrastructure is already operational; (4) regime under heightened security pressure (coup concerns, war fatigue signals) creates additional political pull for tightening controls; (5) 365-day horizon is long enough to comfortably encompass administrative actions even without new legislation. Analyst at 0.79, Skeptic accepted at 0.79. My tech sector is strong (Brier 0.064, underpredict by 24pp), and the historical resolved analog supports going slightly higher to 0.82.