The Iran war's aftershocks dominate today's outlook — Strait of Hormuz disruption is locked in through mid-May, driving a coming European rooftop-solar surge, while Israel holds its Lebanon ceasefire and Russia exploits Ukraine's stretched reserves at Kostiantynivka. Structural 'non-events' (UK-China attribution delay, absence of mass energy protests, suppressed Russian labor unrest) carry the day's highest convictions.

Google has already crossed the threshold at 75%. Microsoft has publicly attributed ~30% of new code to AI in 2025 and is trending upward; Meta and Amazon have announced aggressive internal AI coding mandates. The AI chain is in DEVELOPMENT at 'Unchecked Acceleration' interpretation (40%). The real uncertainty is not whether a majority of code will be AI-generated, but whether firms will publicly disclose that metric in the same phrasing — disclosure risk, not technical risk. Technology is my strongest sector and I underestimate by ~30pp historically, so I lift analyst 0.64 to 0.74. Pillars: network theory (coding practice contagion), Bayesian (Google as precedent shifting prior).