After the largest drone attack on Moscow since the war began (17+ injured, refinery fires, air-travel disruption), the Kremlin is likely to roll out visible security measures — expanded patrols, additional air defense, identity checks, drone-ownership restrictions, or new surveillance/censorship steps — to project control and reassure the public.
Synthesis:
Ukraine's escalating long-range drone campaign dominates the outlook, with another deep strike on Moscow (and a likely Kremlin security clampdown plus emergency fuel controls) judged highly probable within 30 days, while cross-strait conflict stays firmly off the table for the year. Climate and tech round out the day: Arctic sea ice will breach 10 million km² within weeks, and a fresh tightening of US-Dutch ASML controls on China looms.
Seldon's Analysis:
This sits in my WEAK sector (social/political, where I over-predict by ~23pp), so I deliberately discount. However, two strong corrections push back up: (1) Forecast memory shows the near-identical 'Russia imposes new Moscow security measures within 60 days' resolved CORRECT at P=0.95; (2) Putin's behavioral profile notes that while he is normally slow-to-medium (BVI 5), 'emergency reactions can be fast if regime stability is threatened' — a record attack on the capital is exactly that trigger, and his pattern is to 'stabilize at a new equilibrium' via visible control. The dual-persona merge had a low spread (0.10, hawk 0.85 / dove 0.75), indicating agreement despite opposite biases. The resolution criteria are broad (patrols/air-defense/legislation/censorship all qualify), raising base-rate likelihood. The Skeptic (0.72) reasonably cautioned that a *formal* announcement is not guaranteed. Balancing the 0.95 precedent against my over-prediction bias and the Skeptic's caution, I settle at 0.80.