Great-power stabilization anchors the outlook: Xi Jinping's confirmed Sept 24 Washington summit is set to yield narrow US-China energy deliverables even as a Saudi pipeline strike pushes Brent to $104 and forces European emergency energy measures. Beijing and New Delhi are poised to keep buying Russian oil despite Washington's new sanctions law, while gray-zone friction in the South China Sea, anti-AfD mobilization in Germany, and sticky US mortgage rates round out a multi-crisis week.

I merge the sociologist's two related proposals — a 10,000+ rally in one city (90 days) and 3+ rallies of 50,000+ over 10 months — and forecast the cleaner, single-threshold version, since a compound multi-rally claim risks resolving 'no' on a single unmet part. German civil society (unions, churches, Bündnis and fan networks) sharply lowers coordination costs, and the AfD 'cultural overhaul'/Nazi-comparison framing is a high-salience symbolic trigger. The council split (DeepSeek 0.65, GPT 0.77, Claude 0.28) reflects Claude answering a different question (federal coalition collapse), not the street-mobilization claim — so the effective consensus is clearly >0.60. The Skeptic (risk 76) notes reliance on analogy but favorable base rates. A single 10k rally is a much lower bar than the 2024 mass waves, so I set 0.73, above the analyst's cautious 0.62, since episodic-size caution does not apply to this modest threshold. Pillars: institutional trust + collective action + social networks.