Russia-Ukraine combat will breach any Victory Day truce theatrics while Moscow suppresses dissent at home; meanwhile, Polymarket and base rates jointly favor a Democratic House recapture in November, Iran-US tensions stay below the kinetic threshold despite the Hormuz blockade, and China's AI chip self-sufficiency push accelerates as DeepSeek V4 validates Huawei Ascend.

I am inverting the original proposal (P=0.12 attack happens → P=0.88 attack does NOT happen) so the forecast is in the high-confidence zone with clear directional signal. Military analyst 0.12, Skeptic 0.12 — agree. Even with US blockade in place since April 12 and IRGC wartime authority, Iran has so far avoided direct attacks on US warships throughout the crisis. Khamenei's BVI is moderate-low; calculus remains preservation. Tail risk is real (this is the 15% scenario), but the most likely path is continued proxy attacks, deniable mining/swarming events, and rhetoric without a confirmed direct kinetic strike on a US Navy hull. I trim from 0.88 to 0.85 acknowledging the elevated environment and my +23pp military over-bias (which here means I am inclined to overestimate non-attack stability — applying correction to be honest with myself).