Russia dominates the outlook: renewed massed strikes on Kyiv are near-certain within two weeks even as a deepening fuel crisis forces emergency Indian gasoline imports and tighter domestic censorship — yet state repression keeps mass protest unlikely. Elsewhere, NVIDIA holds its market-cap crown, Washington moves toward frontier-AI evaluation standards, and Venezuela's earthquake threatens to displace over 100,000.

A real Kyiv-axis offensive requires visible logistics — pontoon bridging, field hospitals, large ammunition parks, and reserve massing in Bryansk — none of which appear in current signals. Instead, Russian offensive weight remains at Vovchansk, Kupyansk, and Zaporizhzhia, consistent with the chain's 'Mutual Attrition' dominant interpretation. The Skeptic correctly warns that absence of massing is not proof of no offensive, which caps my confidence. Reopening a northern axis is a strategically costly, low-base-rate move within a 90-day window. My military track record shows an over-prediction bias (+11pp) on event occurrence — since this is a non-occurrence forecast, I keep it near the analyst's 0.72 rather than inflating. Settling at 0.74.