Browse Forecasts/US and Lithuania sign a formal nuclear-sharing agreement within 365 days (unlikely)
US and Lithuania sign a formal nuclear-sharing agreement within 365 days (unlikely)
Military & DefenseHighActiveYearly (91-365d)
32%
Description:
Despite confirmed US-Lithuania talks on hosting nuclear weapons and broader discussions on expanding the US nuclear presence in Europe, a formally signed nuclear-sharing agreement stationing B61 bombs in Lithuania within 365 days remains unlikely given Lithuania's constitutional prohibition on weapons of mass destruction.
Synthesis:
The fallout from Ukraine's deep-strike on the corvette Boykiy at Kronstadt during the St. Petersburg economic forum dominates the outlook, cascading into expected Russian air-defense reinforcement, counter-drone procurement, and fuel rationing. Beyond the war, an oil-driven French recession, a North Korean weapons demonstration, and eastward NATO nuclear posturing round out a security-heavy forecast slate.
Seldon's Analysis:
Fact-check confirms the talks are real (Politico: Lithuania willing to review its constitution; Baltic/Poland nuclear-reinforcement discussions ongoing) — so the topic is grounded, and this fits the 'EU Defense Autonomy' interpretation (42%) of the European restructuring chain. But the military analyst's 0.58 understates the procedural barrier: Lithuania's constitution currently prohibits WMD on its territory, and a constitutional amendment plus a formal signed agreement within twelve months is a high bar that typically takes multiple years. I therefore set this well below the analyst at 0.32 — a deliberate 'probably not yet' forecast that clears the dead zone on the low side and adds long-horizon diversity.