Energy markets and the Russia-Ukraine war dominate today's outlook: Brent has already breached $95 amid Strait of Hormuz tolls, while Moscow's energy/port strike doctrine and Ukraine's deepening drone reach into Moscow signal a summer of compounding escalation. A publicly weaponizable Windows SYSTEM-level zero-day (MiniPlasma) opens a parallel cyber front requiring urgent enterprise response.

This is essentially baseline behavior — Doppelganger and Storm-1516 have produced Ukraine-themed forgeries roughly monthly across 2024-2025 per Microsoft Threat Analysis Center and Meta adversarial threat reports. The 60-day attribution window is the only real constraint; major platform reports (Meta, Microsoft, Mandiant, Recorded Future) typically publish quarterly threat assessments. Russia-Ukraine event chain in escalation supports continued info-ops investment. My intuition was 0.85 but I apply compression for the cybersecurity sector weakness (small sample, overprediction history), landing at 0.72 — close to Skeptic 0.62 but with upward pressure from the well-established attribution cadence.