Defense mobilization dominates today's outlook: a confirmed NATO Ankara summit is set to lock in a spending floor above 3% of GDP while US-Europe missile co-production talks harden into deals, all against the aftermath of the US-Iran war — where CENTCOM reinforcement and Iranian cyber retaliation loom even as oil stays contained near $76. Counter to consensus, we judge Russia unlikely to announce formal mobilization and France unlikely to see either Le Pen-driven or austerity-driven mass protest waves.

The cybersecurity analyst is the highest-weighted agent (0.63) with a firm council consensus (0.68–0.72), and the resolution criteria are broad (any of: new CISA/FBI alert, wiper in Gulf firms, DDoS on US banks, AIS spoofing in Hormuz, threat-intel reporting of APT activation). Several of those — CISA alerts and threat-intel activation reporting — are near-certain after strikes of this scale, which supports a true resolution. BUT I apply a hard self-correction: my cybersecurity forecasts are severely over-confident (+39pp), and the Soleimani-2020 precedent is instructive — widely predicted Iranian *disruptive* retaliation against US infrastructure largely failed to materialize beyond espionage and defacement. The Skeptic rightly flags that Gulf maritime/energy IT is a far cleaner path than hardened US financial OT, so the headline 'disruptive attacks on US financial infrastructure' claim is weaker than the broad indicators. Balancing the low-bar OR criteria upward against my over-bias and the base rate downward, I land at 0.66 rather than the analyst's higher implied confidence in disruptive ops.