Escalation dominates the outlook: Washington readies a maximum-pressure Iran sanctions package while a direct Iranian strike stays unlikely, and Russian state-linked hackers are poised to disrupt Ukrainian and NATO-adjacent infrastructure around Kyiv's Independence Day. Managed authoritarian consolidation (Hong Kong, Kazakhstan) and persistent economic strain (Japan's negative real wages, Argentina's labor unrest) round out a week defined by coercive statecraft and structural pressure.

Skeptic risk 82 with strong base-rate support — GRU/Sandworm has a multi-year record of destructive operations against exactly these target classes. My cybersecurity track record is strong (Brier 0.05), so I trust the direction. The 12-month window and 'at least one incident' bar is low relative to the demonstrated tempo of Russian disruptive cyber activity, and the Russia-Ukraine chain is in ESCALATION stage (purity 0.51, 'Russia Multifront Strategy' dominant at 67%). The main uncertainty is attribution clarity within the window rather than whether an incident occurs. I hold slightly above the Skeptic's 0.70 at 0.72 given the low bar and escalation context.