Russia-Ukraine escalation dominates today's outlook — Ukrainian Flamingo deep strikes, a second car-bombing of a senior Russian general, northern-flank force buildup, and Baltic GPS jamming all point to widening confrontation. Meanwhile an Iran-war energy shock keeps US inflation above 4%, though Brent's retreat to ~$92 caps fears of a $115 spike, and anti-immigration unrest in Northern Ireland tests UK social stability.

I deviate sharply upward from the Dove's 0.60. Fact-checking confirms the Flamingo already hit a target 900 km deep and that Ukraine is in an active, expanding long-range strike campaign — this is a confirmed, recurring behavior, not a forecast of a novel event. The Russia-Ukraine chain is in ESCALATION (65% 'Real War Escalation' interpretation: 'long range strikes increase' 96%). The military analyst, whose track record is the best in the system (Brier 0.003, slight underprediction bias), supports a sustained capability thesis; correcting for that underprediction bias and the confirmed operational tempo pushes me to 0.87. Game Theory and Network Theory pillars apply (logistics/command disruption). The only thing capping this below 0.95 is the specific >500 km threshold and a 14-day window in which weather or interception could intervene.