Victory Day risk dominates today's outlook: Moscow is poised for sweeping GPS and mobile shutdowns to defeat Ukrainian drones, while sustained US strikes on Iran and a closed Strait of Hormuz keep Middle East energy markets locked in crisis — with no Iranian shipping concession in sight before month-end.

Two analyst proposals (geopolitician + political) converge on the same elite-instability theme with 6- and 12-month horizons. Putin's behavioral profile (BVI 5, key pattern: 'long preparation phase → sudden decisive action → stabilization at new equilibrium') fits a deliberate, scheduled purge response to coup concerns. Historical base rate over 365 days is moderate — Russia has had multiple high-profile security/military purges (Surovikin sidelining, Shoigu replacement, Ivanov arrest 2024) — averaging roughly one significant action per 12-18 months. Combined with the unusually strong elite-stress signals (war fatigue, financial squeeze, intelligence warnings), 0.70 is appropriate. Geopolitics is my best non-tech sector (Brier 0.23, underpredict by 6pp), so I lean slightly toward the upper end. The longer 365-day horizon resolves the dead-zone problem of the 6-month version. Skeptic gave 68/100, accepted 0.58; I deviate upward because (a) merging two analyst proposals strengthens the signal, (b) my geopolitics sector underpredicts, and (c) the 12-month base rate alone justifies ~0.55-0.60 even without elevated signals.