Ukraine's war economy dominates today's outlook — from record Russian fuel-price shocks driven by refinery strikes to a €15bn Western financing backfill and a maturing Ukraine-Norway drone industrial base — while Iran's dual-track escalation (protest-linked executions at home and cyber operations against UK energy infrastructure) marks a widening confrontation with the West.

The dominant evidence is base rate: Iran is among the world's highest-volume executioners and uses exemplary punishment in clustered waves to deter cascading defiance, especially under combined internal and external pressure. This structural pattern makes 'at least one additional political/protest-linked execution within 60 days' genuinely high-probability. My historical-analogy search returned mostly low-similarity coup precedents (not directly applicable), so I anchor on the execution base rate rather than analogy. The political analyst has no track-record data (default weight), and my social sector is FAILING with a strong overprediction bias (+34pp) — so I deliberately compress from the ~0.70+ that the raw base rate would suggest toward the Skeptic's 0.68, landing at 0.66. Main downside: the specific 'linked to January 2026 protests' attribution may not always be cleanly reportable, though Iran's pattern of publicizing such executions supports resolvability.