A Middle East de-escalation reframes the week: a US-Iran ceasefire extension reopens the Strait of Hormuz and revives talks, yet a comprehensive nuclear deal remains out of reach within 90 days. Elsewhere, the Russia-Ukraine war keeps escalating with deep-strike and Donbas pressure, while economic fault lines widen — EU tariffs on Chinese hybrids, accelerating Chinese de-dollarization, and a Russian rate-cutting cycle.

This is the complement to the 'no comprehensive deal' forecast and the two are mutually reinforcing: talks continue but do not quickly conclude. The fact-check is the key upgrade — the proposal's 0.70 predated confirmation of the ceasefire-extension deal that explicitly 'creates a window for negotiations over Iran's nuclear program' (Axios). With a process channel now active (Witkoff–Iran in Switzerland) and both sides invested in keeping Hormuz open, the marginal cost of holding two more rounds over six months is low; even adversaries that ultimately fail to agree typically hold multiple sessions (2013-15, 2021-22 patterns). The Middle East chain de-escalation dominance supports continued dialogue. I raise to 0.77 from the analyst's 0.70 given the post-proposal confirmation. Geopolitics is a reliable sector for me.