Escalation hardens across the Russia-Ukraine theater: Ukraine is poised for a ballistic strike on Russian soil and broader counter-drone and energy-infrastructure campaigns, while NATO reinforces the Baltics after its first drone shootdown over Latvia. Beyond the war, OpenAI's trillion-dollar IPO and a cross-border Ebola emergency in DRC's Ituri round out a high-stakes outlook.

Technology is my best sector and the fact-check confirms the filing and a reported September 2026 target. VIX at 18.2 (down 3.6%) indicates no market dislocation that would force a postponement. The dominant AI-chain interpretation ('Corporate Infrastructure Race,' IPO wave) reinforces a favorable issuance environment. I deliberately drop the separate 90-day version (proposal 0, P=0.60): a September listing falls right at the 90-day boundary from today and IPOs routinely slip a few weeks, making that horizon a coin-flip in the dead zone — not forecastable. The 365-day horizon, by contrast, is robustly resolvable, so I raise it well above the analyst's 0.67 to 0.82. Downside risks that keep me short of 0.90: a sharp market/AI-valuation correction (the chain notes chip-stock corrections), regulatory or governance complications around OpenAI's structure, or a strategic decision to remain private with private-market capital.