Wartime supply shocks dominate the outlook: Ukraine's drone campaign is pushing Russia toward a fuel-rationing crisis and deeper telecom lockdowns, while Iran's fresh attack on Gulf shipping draws a likely US naval reinforcement. Elsewhere, Europe tightens shadow-fleet enforcement, Colombia's new hardline president eyes the ELN, and—against the alarmist narrative—benign volatility suggests the S&P 500 avoids a 5% drop.

The military analyst (weight 0.26, Brier 0.14) is well-placed here, and an explicit NSDC commitment provides a strong directional anchor. The Russia-Ukraine chain remains in ESCALATION (sustained escalation 56%, peace talks stall 95%), so there is no realistic scenario in which Ukraine reduces wartime defense allocations for 2027 — wartime budgets ratchet upward, not down. The main risk to this specific forecast is timing rather than substance: Ukraine's budget process typically finalizes in late Q4, and 150 days (to ~late November) may fall just before final Rada approval. I therefore hold at 0.70 rather than the analyst's 0.74, reflecting calendar risk against an otherwise near-certain policy direction. Psychohistory (wartime fiscal-militarization cycle) supports this.