Energy supply shocks dominate the outlook: US strikes on Iranian tankers and Houthi hits on Saudi facilities hold Brent above $100 while European gas surges past €79/MWh into the tightest pre-winter storage since 2013. Beneath the commodity stress, a hardening security economy takes shape — accelerating Russian loyalty prosecutions, a >10% German defense budget jump, AI-driven election interference ahead of the US midterms, and a defense-tech munitions scaling race.

The base rate strongly favors this status-quo outcome: winters 2023/24 and 2024/25 saw heavy grid strikes without a new wave, and current flows (10-25k/month) would need to roughly quadruple to breach 500k. The mobile, network-connected cohorts already left; the remaining population skews older and less mobile, and EU asylum politics have hardened. However, social is my WEAK sector (Brier 0.30, systematic +23pp overprediction), so per self-correction I compress toward 50%, pulling the analyst's and Skeptic's 0.74 down to 0.71. Downside risks that would make me wrong: a catastrophic multi-week nationwide blackout, a major frontline collapse triggering evacuation orders, or a large territorial loss — all plausible given the escalation stage, which is why I don't go higher.