A post-war pivot dominates today's outlook: the signed US-Iran deal and Hormuz reopening pin Brent below $80 and pull US carriers homeward, even as a new G7-versus-China economic-security front opens around critical minerals — drawing state financing, Chinese cyber-espionage, and Congressional scrutiny of Grok's role in lethal AI targeting — while Russia tightens domestic repression ahead of its September Duma vote.

I fact-checked the core claim and it is REAL and confirmed by multiple outlets: a Pentagon official disclosed in a court filing that Grok AI helped direct ~2,000 munitions at Iran. This removes the Skeptic's main residual doubt about the trigger's authenticity. The disclosure via litigation (not a controlled Pentagon release) is exactly the kind of uncontrolled, politically charged revelation that draws Congressional attention, and the AI safety caucus plus NDAA oversight history provide ready institutional vehicles. Council consensus was tight (0.72/0.74/0.82); Skeptic 0.71. Technology is my best-calibrated sector (Brier 0.034, with a slight underprediction bias), so I lift modestly above consensus to 0.75. Main downside risk: Congress may fold this into existing classified channels rather than open visible oversight within 90 days — but the public, on-the-record nature of the filing makes a documentable inquiry likely.