US coercion architecture dominates today's outlook: the confirmed naval blockade of Iran is set to persist and formalize even as crude stays capped near $88, while Trump's fresh 100% drone tariffs and a coming transshipment-enforcement squeeze reshape US-China trade. In parallel, Russia's FSB moves to legally absorb occupied Ukrainian territory, and China's AI stack tightens around a monetizing DeepSeek.

I frame this as the probability the ban IS lifted (0.12) — a well-grounded low-probability forecast. The base rate is decisive: the ban has held for nearly five years against sustained international pressure, and Taliban legitimacy rests on conservative rural constituencies who would be alienated by reversal. UNESCO's multi-year data shows entrenchment, not shifting. The Skeptic endorsed this at 0.15 (risk score 80). Crucially, this is a LOW-probability forecast and social is my failing sector where I systematically OVERPREDICT (+15pp) — my bias correction pushes this direction lower, not toward 50%, so I set 0.12. The only realistic path to reversal (regime change or major external intervention) is not on the near-term horizon. Institutional Trust and Psychohistory pillars support the persistence of the status quo.