A confirmed US-Iran deal signing dominates the outlook: a fast Middle East de-escalation is set to pull warships back from Hormuz and drag Brent crude toward $70, even as Trump's high-volatility deal-making leaves room for reversal. Elsewhere, GlobalSign's certificate revocations are fracturing Russia's internet trust stack, while a sharply corrected read on US mortgage rates — actually near 6.5%, not 6.8% — makes a jump above 7% unlikely this summer.

Swiss voters have a strong track record of rejecting hard-cap immigration initiatives (e.g., the 2014 Ecopop initiative, ~74% opposition), and the Swiss economy's structural dependence on foreign labor amid below-replacement fertility makes a binding cap economically self-defeating — major parties and business lobbies would mobilize against it. The sociologist (weight 0.30) and Skeptic both set ~0.20. Social is my overprediction sector, reinforcing a low figure for passage. I set 0.17 for the cap passing — a clean, well-below-dead-zone forecast. The main caveat the Skeptic noted is thin current polling, so I avoid going lower.