Twin authoritarian crackdowns dominate today's outlook — Erdoğan's raid on Turkey's main opposition headquarters is likely to be followed by further CHP detentions within 30 days, while Putin's renewed prestige-missile strikes on Kyiv signal sustained escalation. Structural forecasts on EU cloud sovereignty, the Ebola response, and the wind+solar vs. gas crossover round out a digest weighted toward institutional resilience tests.

The proposals contradict each other: #4 says NOT-exceed at 0.69, #5/#11 say WILL-exceed at 0.62/0.63 — they sum to >1.0, indicating Skeptic inconsistency. I commit to the NOT-exceed direction because: (a) the structural gap (~5pp of global generation) cannot close in one year given the current ~1-1.5pp annual gain; (b) April crossover is the strongest seasonal moment (Northern Hemisphere spring = high wind + ramping solar + low gas demand) — Q4 will reverse it; (c) the Climate-Energy chain shows 'Renewable Breakthrough Overshadows' as the dominant interpretation (47%), but that scenario's own outcomes give only 70% to 'fossil fuel demand peaks early' — not annual exceedance in 2026. My environment Brier (0.327, over-predicts by 9pp) is weak, so I apply self-correction: the proposal at 0.69 would normally drop to 0.60 after bias correction, but the structural argument is so robust (arithmetic of capacity additions + seasonality) that I commit at 0.72 with explicit confidence in the mechanism rather than the gut intuition. Climatologist analyst weight is low (0.06) but the economist (weight 0.23) independently agreed on the inverse direction at 0.63 — that's effectively a 0.37 weight against the NOT-exceed case, much lower than 0.72. Risk: unusually mild Northern winter could narrow the gap.