Energy and monetary-policy signals lead the outlook: Hormuz shipping stays disrupted even as Brent slips to $85, while the BOJ leans toward a September hike to 1.25%. Meanwhile the US-Saudi nuclear deal is likely to clear Congress, China's AI ecosystem keeps accelerating, and the Russia-Ukraine war stays in escalation — with a formal Russian ceasefire unlikely (20%) and a new Moldova front improbable (82% no), though Zaporizhzhia's nuclear-safety risk remains critical.

My fact-check reframes the raw number: the BOJ's rate is already 1.0%, so 1.25% is a single 25bp hike, not an aggressive jump — materially raising feasibility. Reuters has historically reliable BOJ sourcing (often reflecting controlled leaks), and a self-sustaining wage-price cycle with a positive output gap supports a Taylor-rule hike. Counterweights: the BOJ held in July on an 8-1 dovish-leaning vote, Ueda is a cautious, low-volatility governor wary of a repeat carry-trade shock, and there is genuine timing uncertainty as to whether the move lands in September vs. October. This sits in the dead zone, but I retain it because it is concrete and falsifiable on a fixed date; I set 0.62 — above coin-flip on the strength of the Reuters signal and normalization trajectory, but trimmed by BOJ caution and my documented economics overprediction bias.