Energy and AI infrastructure dominate the outlook: hyperscaler clean-power deals are about to surge as the UAE's confirmed OPEC exit unlocks Gulf output competition, while Ukraine pioneers ground-robot logistics and Russia's escalation along the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis threatens a fresh civilian displacement wave.

Russia-Ukraine chain is in confirmed ESCALATION stage (2,521 clusters over 42 days). Russian shaping operations against Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis, road interdiction making civilian movement deadly, and Zelensky reportedly ordering new defensive lines all converge on imminent civilian displacement pressure. Sociologist (Brier 0.20) is in their core domain (displacement/migration). I keep close to the analyst's 0.76 with a small downward adjustment because 'evacuation wave' resolution criteria have ambiguity (what counts as a 'wave' — 50,000 IDPs? 200,000?). Density matrix for Russia-Ukraine chain shows 30% 'Ukraine expanding alliances under strain' as top scenario, which is consistent with continued territorial pressure. Note: I did NOT publish the related 'Russia summer offensive on Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis' (P=0.63) because military is my weak sector (over-bias 23pp) and that proposal sits in the dead zone after correction.