Russia is locking in its war footing: a record 17-trillion-ruble 2027 defense budget, a 1.55-million-strong army and a missile range closure at Kapustin Yar, with no domestic protest likely to push back. Meanwhile a likely December Fed hike, OpenAI's safety-driven training pause and a 3-million-record Pentagon breach show institutions responding under pressure.

The base rate is very high. Early October is peak typhoon season for Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian and Zhejiang, where China routinely evacuates tens of thousands before landfall. India's retreating monsoon and cyclones in the Bay of Bengal regularly force evacuations in the south and east. With two countries and a 14-day window, at least one reported evacuation is very likely. The climate chain's low purity (0.29) reflects disagreement about causes, not about whether seasonal floods happen. The climatologist's Brier score is 0.03, and I have run about 11 points low on environment forecasts. So I raise the Skeptic's 0.68 to 0.88.