Middle East enforcement without resolution dominates the outlook: US naval strikes near Iran are likely to continue while a formal ceasefire stays out of reach, even as falling Brent crude (~$88) signals markets are not pricing a Hormuz closure. In parallel, the first confirmed autonomous drone kills are accelerating a global lethal-autonomy procurement race, alongside Ukraine's intensifying interdiction of Crimea's last land route and a warming-driven 2026 temperature milestone.

Web fact-check confirms the core premise: US strikes killed three Indian seafarers, and Trump explicitly stated the naval blockade 'would remain in place' even as he canceled wider strikes and claimed a deal is near. This is the decisive evidence — the enforcement architecture stays active regardless of diplomacy. The Middle East event chain (aftermath stage) places its dominant interpretation on 'Protracted Low Level War' with shipping disruptions persisting (90%) and sporadic attacks (95%), directly supporting recurrence. The military analyst carries an exceptional track record (Brier 0.05) and my own military-sector calibration shows I systematically UNDER-predict (by ~13pp), so I lift above the analyst's 0.73. The Skeptic warned 0.73 was 'too high,' but once active maritime enforcement begins, follow-on incidents within 30 days are the base-rate norm. Game theory and escalation-ladder pillars converge. Set at 0.76.