A confirmed US-Iran deal signing dominates the outlook: a fast Middle East de-escalation is set to pull warships back from Hormuz and drag Brent crude toward $70, even as Trump's high-volatility deal-making leaves room for reversal. Elsewhere, GlobalSign's certificate revocations are fracturing Russia's internet trust stack, while a sharply corrected read on US mortgage rates — actually near 6.5%, not 6.8% — makes a jump above 7% unlikely this summer.

The Middle East chain sits in AFTERMATH with a 70% 'Rapid De-Escalation' interpretation (shipping normalized 85%, ceasefire 90%) — the strongest density-matrix signal in today's pool. Web confirmation shows the deal scheduled for June 14 signing with explicit Hormuz-reopening language, so this is confirmation-stage evidence, not rumor. The military analyst (Brier 0.003, essentially flawless track record, slight underprediction bias) proposed 0.62; military is also my strongest sector (Brier 0.078, I underpredict by ~9pp), both arguing upward. The Skeptic accepted the core logic. I cap rather than maximize because Trump's BVI-8 profile (escalate→deal→claim-victory cycle, comfort with reversal) means a 14-day window carries real wobble risk — a single Truth Social reversal could re-tighten posture. Net: 0.72.