Ukraine's war economy dominates today's outlook — from record Russian fuel-price shocks driven by refinery strikes to a €15bn Western financing backfill and a maturing Ukraine-Norway drone industrial base — while Iran's dual-track escalation (protest-linked executions at home and cyber operations against UK energy infrastructure) marks a widening confrontation with the West.

The imitation logic is sound (Skeptic risk 83, technologist weight 1.00): once Ozon hides warehouse locations after multiple strikes, remaining the only easily-targetable network is a competitive and security liability. The broad 'OR' resolution criterion (geodata suppression OR anti-drone announcement) materially raises the probability, since geodata suppression is a fast, cheap, TRL-9 action and directly observable via the public site/app. The Skeptic's key caveat — Russian firms often harden quietly without public statements — is the main risk, but geodata removal is itself publicly detectable even without an announcement. This clears the dead zone on the strength of the low-cost, observable primary path. Weighting for my modest technology overprediction (+10pp) keeps me at the analyst's 0.64-0.66.