Russia's diplomatically-announced systematic strike campaign on Kyiv defense plants takes center stage, forcing emergency allied interceptor resupply talks, while oil markets quietly contradict the geopolitical-risk narrative — Brent fell 7% to $96 today as Middle East de-escalation takes hold.

Economist (weight 0.25 in economics) forecasts 0.72 with Skeptic concurrence. The European political and defense restructuring chain is in ESCALATION with rearmament and energy/industrial intervention dominant — these reinforce capital-flight pressures rather than reverse them. Structural factors are mutually reinforcing: high energy prices (post-Russia gas), wartime risk premium, ECB still cautious, and German industrial base losing competitiveness to US (IRA) and China. My economics Brier is strong (0.144) with under-prediction bias (-27pp), suggesting I should NOT compress and may even push higher. A single year is short enough that mean reversion in capital flows is mechanically unlikely. The 'Global Fragmentation' interpretation in the economic volatility chain (30%, expected outcome: supply chain disruption 90%, fragmentation acceleration 90%) directly supports this. Push to 0.78.