Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
Browse Forecasts / Iran will conduct a retaliatory strike on a major Gulf oil facility within 30 days Iran will conduct a retaliatory strike on a major Gulf oil facility within 30 days Geopolitics High Resolved Medium-term (8-30d) Correct ⚙ Auto-resolved
Description: Following US attacks on Kharg Island, Iran has explicitly threatened retaliation against regional oil infrastructure linked to American interests. The strike would aim to demonstrate asymmetric capability and impose economic costs on the US and its Gulf partners, mirroring the logic of the 2019 Aramco attacks but in a more escalated context.
Synthesis: The US-Iran conflict dominates today's outlook: Strait of Hormuz disruption and attacks on Kharg Island are driving oil prices toward $120, while US force reinforcements surge toward the Gulf and Lebanon's displacement crisis deepens toward 1.5 million — a regional conflagration with cascading global economic consequences.
Part of Narrative: enables triggers causes 95% Iranian regime will survive … 82% Brent crude oil will exceed … 95% U.S. CPI inflation will rise… 95% Iran will conduct a retaliat… Analysis: Geopolitician +
Skeptic Approved Confidence Score: 72/100
+ Resolution Evidence (1) ▼
Resolution Attempts (1) ▼
Probability History: 03/15/2026, 01:11 PM 03/16/2026, 12:15 AM 03/17/2026, 12:14 AM 03/17/2026, 06:17 PM 03/18/2026, 06:21 AM 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% ▼ Probability Updates (5)
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