Great-power military signaling dominates the outlook: China's rare Pacific strategic-missile test is set to trigger a fresh wave of US-allied deterrence measures, while Ukraine's crippling of 13 of Russia's 15 largest refineries threatens a domestic fuel-price shock. Domestic pressure points widen in parallel — Cuba's third nationwide blackout, an expected Erdogan crackdown around the NATO summit — even as record ocean heat underscores an accelerating climate baseline.

Ocean heat content has set successive annual records for roughly a decade — a robust monotonic physical trend far less dependent on the analyst's judgment than most forecasts, which matters because the climatologist's overall reliability weight is very low (0.06). The Skeptic passed at 0.71 (risk 83) and confirmed 2025 was itself a record OHC year. The thermohaline-collapse framing is not evidence for this specific 2026 claim and I discount it. The residual risk is ENSO/La Niña variability producing a rare year-on-year dip, plus my own environment track record being poor and biased toward OVERESTIMATION (~17pp). I therefore compress from the analyst's 0.71 to 0.68. Climate Risk and Bayesian pillars support a high-base-rate continuation.