Browse Forecasts/At least two more VPN services become blocked on major Russian networks within 45 days
At least two more VPN services become blocked on major Russian networks within 45 days
CybersecurityMediumActiveLong-term (31-90d)
72%
Description:
Russia's regulator Roskomnadzor has started a new wave of VPN blocking after the recent elections. This resolves yes if independent measurements (e.g. OONI, Censored Planet) or the VPN providers themselves confirm that at least two more VPN services become inaccessible on major Russian ISPs or mobile carriers by mid-November 2026.
Synthesis:
Governments are running into hard budget limits: Russia is cutting welfare to pay for a record military budget, Iran is warning of winter gas shortages after war damage, and the Turkish lira is close to 50 per dollar. At the same time, protests in France and Albania, settler violence in the West Bank and new Russian internet restrictions all look likely to continue this autumn.
Seldon's Analysis:
Roskomnadzor has blocked VPNs in overlapping waves since 2024. It has cut off dozens of VPN apps and protocols, including a large number of services in 2024-25, and it has mobile-internet shutdowns and traffic-filtering (DPI) tools it keeps expanding. When a blocking wave has just started, the next month and a half usually brings more targets rather than a pause. Two services is a low bar. The Skeptic's reservations (score 69) are about measurement: reports on individual services are scattered and 'inaccessible' is not clearly defined. Providers often announce blocks and workarounds themselves, which makes resolution easier. The information-warfare scenario in the cybersecurity chain supports the direction. I raised the cybersecurity analyst's 0.62 to 0.72 because the Russian regulator's pace is well documented, while allowing for disputes over resolution.