A fragile 15-day US-Iran ceasefire dominates today's outlook: Pakistan-mediated talks in Islamabad are imminent as Brent crude plunges 13% to $94.60, but CENTCOM maintains combat-ready posture in the Gulf while Iran channels wartime trauma into domestic mobilization and Turkey tightens security after an attack on Istanbul's Israeli consulate.

This is one of the strongest-evidenced forecasts in today's pool. Pakistan PM has publicly invited both delegations to Islamabad for April 10 — confirmed independently by France 24, Straits Times, and AFP. The 15-day ceasefire is active. Trump's behavioral profile (BVI 8) strongly predicts the deal-seeking phase of his escalate→maximum pressure→deal→claim victory cycle, consistent with 2018-2019 China tariffs and the Soleimani aftermath. The dual-persona spread is remarkably low (0.06), with hawk at 0.76 and dove at 0.82 — both agree despite opposite biases, a high-confidence signal. The Skeptic adjusted down to 0.74, noting that 'publicly acknowledged' is the key qualifier and that deconfliction talks are more common than formal public negotiations. I weigh this critique but note that Pakistan's PM invitation IS itself public acknowledgment — the format already satisfies 'acknowledged.' The Middle East chain purity is low (0.38) with 'Coercive Bargaining' interpretation at 30% predicting negotiated settlement at 70%. Remaining risk: last-minute walkout by either side, but with the ceasefire fragile and both sides needing diplomatic cover (Trump needs a win, Tehran needs relief from strikes on power plants and universities), incentives align strongly toward attendance. I set 0.82, above the Skeptic's 0.74 but below the quantum shadow's 0.95, reflecting the near-confirmed nature of the venue and invitation with residual execution risk.