Twin pressure points dominate today's outlook: an active US-Iran tit-for-tat cycle near Hormuz that markets are pricing as limited (Brent fell 4.3% even as strikes resumed), and a deepening Russian fuel and energy crisis now forcing emergency rationing across dozens of regions even as Moscow intensifies blackout strikes on Ukraine. Trump's escalate-then-deal pattern shapes both the Iran de-escalation odds and the low probability that his 100% EU digital-tax tariff is actually implemented within 60 days.

This is a well-constructed forecast separating intent from capability — Iran's record is strong in DDoS, wipers, and opportunistic intrusion but weak in sustained OT disruption against hardened US operators. The Skeptic endorsed it at 84/100 with a favorable base rate. I apply mandatory self-correction here: my cybersecurity track record is WEAK (Brier 0.284, overpredicting by 31pp), meaning I systematically overstate cyber-attack probabilities. The correct bias adjustment is to push DOWN, which aligns with the low analyst probability — so I set 0.22, slightly below the analyst's 0.24, deferring to the Skeptic and to my own overprediction correction. The Global Cybersecurity chain's low purity (0.27) and the 'Cyber Insecurity' interpretation at only 20% further argue against a high-impact confirmed outage. Pillars: threat actor analysis, attack surface, cyber deterrence.