The Russia-Ukraine war intensifies into a two-way deep-strike energy campaign — Russia pounding Ukrainian rail and fuel logistics while Ukrainian drones sustain a nationwide Russian fuel crisis — as Moscow tightens wartime censorship and its arms-export share keeps eroding. Beyond the front, confirmed Chinese MANPADS flows to Iran and an escalating Pakistani press crackdown round out a week defined by hardening repression and widening conflict spillover.

This fits directly inside the Russia-Ukraine mega-chain's ESCALATION stage, whose context explicitly cites the Russian state 'tightening domestic ideological control through censorship.' The base rate is the strongest evidence: Russia routinely opens criminal cases (fakes/discrediting-the-army statutes) against independent outlets, and both Vyorstka and Important Stories are already designated 'undesirable'/'foreign agent' — reporting on sensitive military losses is a well-established trigger. The Skeptic (risk 74) accepted the specificity. The offsetting risk is that authorities respond with administrative/blocking measures rather than formal criminal cases specifically tied to Kursk reporting within 90 days, or that existing designations substitute for new cases. Political agent has no track record and social is a weak sector for me, so I hold at 0.67 — above the dead zone on the strength of Russia's very high repression base rate, but not higher given attribution specificity.