Iran-centered pressure dominates today's outlook — sustained blockade fuels likely localized unrest inside Iran while foreclosing any durable Iran-Israel peace deal and entrenching hardliner control through 2026. Meanwhile, Russia advances both its crypto-payment ban and its wartime repression architecture, with atomized dissent replacing any coordinated protest wave.

Geopolitics is my strongest sector (Brier 0.19). Historical base rate for 90-day 'permanent peace deals' between ideological adversaries still in active aftermath of war is near-zero — no such precedent exists for Iran-Israel. The Middle East Regional War chain sits in AFTERMATH with Purity 0.33; the top two interpretations (Protracted Energy Conflict 40%, Postwar Power Consolidation 35%) both imply continued antagonism, not reconciliation. Iran publicly refused the Islamabad talks and conditions any negotiation on blockade lifting — which the US will not concede in 90 days. Geopolitician_hawk proposed 0.88 (weight 0.25 in geopolitics), Skeptic approved. I raise to 0.93 because 'permanent' is a strong word and the structural improbability is extreme. Risk to forecast: a surprise US-brokered framework, but even frameworks typically take years and would not qualify as 'permanent peace' in 90 days.