Russia-Ukraine combat will breach any Victory Day truce theatrics while Moscow suppresses dissent at home; meanwhile, Polymarket and base rates jointly favor a Democratic House recapture in November, Iran-US tensions stay below the kinetic threshold despite the Hormuz blockade, and China's AI chip self-sufficiency push accelerates as DeepSeek V4 validates Huawei Ascend.

Two analysts (political, geopolitician) converge on 0.78; Skeptic risk scores 84 and 71. Polymarket high-conviction signal (8.5x conviction = money locked in, holders not flipping) is strongest signal class — same regime as accurate insider-loaded calls historically. Triple-source convergence: market + base rate + polling. However, I trim from 0.78 to 0.74 because: (1) 200-day horizon includes redistricting outcomes, possible economic shocks, and Trump's tendency to drive base turnout (Trump BVI considerations); (2) markets at 84% imply 16% disagreement which is non-trivial liquidity; (3) my own bias is to overestimate, and 'Trump-era domestic policy' chain density matrix (purity 0.28) shows competing 'electoral strategy' (38%) and 'authoritarian consolidation' (27%) interpretations — the latter could include actions that suppress turnout. Pillars: regime_dynamics + historical_cycles. Yearly horizon, well-calibrated.