Cascading shocks from a closed Strait of Hormuz drive Brent toward $120 and force Gulf states back to fuel-oil power, while Trump's break with diplomatic protocol on Taiwan sets the stage for Chinese military pressure and Huawei completes its takeover of China's AI chip market from a retreating Nvidia.

AI chain interpretation 'Commercial Hype Reset' (40%) raises some risk of capex slowdown, but base data is overwhelming: Nvidia results, Microsoft/Meta/Google capex guidance all up 40%+ year-on-year, plus government export-financing tailwinds. Economist_bull weight is low (0.18) but the underlying signals are concrete macro data, not opinion. The 30% threshold is the right side of the distribution given current run-rate. Main downside risk: a sharp Q3/Q4 capex reset if AI revenue disappoints. I anchor at 0.72 (just above analyst's 0.70) — the structural trend is robust through end-2026 even if there's a reset later.