Russia dominates the outlook: renewed massed strikes on Kyiv are near-certain within two weeks even as a deepening fuel crisis forces emergency Indian gasoline imports and tighter domestic censorship — yet state repression keeps mass protest unlikely. Elsewhere, NVIDIA holds its market-cap crown, Washington moves toward frontier-AI evaluation standards, and Venezuela's earthquake threatens to displace over 100,000.

I merged two political-analyst proposals (repressive narrative management, idx 8; formal reporting restrictions, idx 9) since both describe the same underlying tightening of Russia's information environment during acute economic/war stress. The factual base is confirmed: fuel shortages across two-thirds of regions, India imports, and coordinated Kremlin messaging (Peskov 'panic-buying' line echoed by governors). This fits the Russia-Ukraine chain's 'Russia Domestic Consolidation' interpretation (propaganda intensifies: 90%) and the Eurasia security chain's 'Authoritarian Consolidation' (crackdown on dissent: 90%). Base rate is strongly favorable — Russia has repeatedly criminalized negative war/economic reporting since 2022. The political analysts have NO track-record data (default weight), so I don't push above their 0.66-0.68; the concreteness of qualifying triggers (any of several regulatory actions) keeps the bar reachable. Settling at 0.68.