Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
Browse Forecasts / Anti-war protests will occur in at least 20 US cities within 21 days Anti-war protests will occur in at least 20 US cities within 21 days Social Medium Resolved Medium-term (8-30d) Correct ⚙ Auto-resolved
Description: A major US-Iran war combined with a reported $200 billion supplemental request creates a powerful focal point for mobilization. Existing campus, faith, immigrant, and anti-war networks from the Gaza protest cycle lower organizational costs. The 20-city threshold is modest by historical standards.
Synthesis: The US-Iran war dominates today's outlook, driving cascading forecasts across military escalation, Iranian information control, American domestic protest, and European monetary policy — while Gulf energy disruptions highlight long-term cyber vulnerabilities in Asia's LNG supply chains.
Part of Narrative: triggers triggers 78% Anti-war protests will occur… 90% Iran will impose broad warti… 95% The United States and Iran w… Analysis: Sociologist +
Skeptic Approved Confidence Score: 74/100
+ Resolution Evidence (2) ▼
Resolution Attempts (1) ▼