Victory Day risk dominates today's outlook: Moscow is poised for sweeping GPS and mobile shutdowns to defeat Ukrainian drones, while sustained US strikes on Iran and a closed Strait of Hormuz keep Middle East energy markets locked in crisis — with no Iranian shipping concession in sight before month-end.

Multiple convergent factors support very high probability: (1) Confirmed news that Russia is scaling back the parade itself due to drone threats validates the threat perception. (2) Russia has an established base rate of using EW, cellular throttling, and GNSS spoofing around sensitive security events — this is the cheapest, fastest counter-UAS layer available. (3) Zelensky publicly warned of Victory Day strikes, and Ukraine has been escalating deep strikes (refinery campaign confirmed in fact-check). (4) The Skeptic gave 89/100 risk score and accepted P=0.90 with no compression. My technology track record is strong (Brier 0.064, underpredict by 24pp), so I do not need to compress here. Slight reduction from 0.90 to 0.88 acknowledges the residual chance disruptions are not publicly visible/reported in the 5-day window. Pillars: regulatory landscape + infrastructure readiness + societal impact all aligned.