Browse Forecasts/Ukraine grain exports stay at least 35% below last year's level over the next 90 days
Ukraine grain exports stay at least 35% below last year's level over the next 90 days
EconomicsHighActiveLong-term (31-90d)
65%
Description:
Repeated strikes on Greater Odesa port and energy infrastructure, a vessel attack near Odesa, and rail disruption are likely to keep Ukrainian grain logistics impaired through the early 2026/27 export season. Analysts warn Ukraine could lose 1.5-2.5 million tonnes of exports per month if Greater Odesa remains largely unavailable.
Synthesis:
A widening Black Sea war on grain logistics dominates today's outlook: simultaneous strikes on Russian and Ukrainian export ports are set to keep ~25% of global wheat trade impaired for months, while Turkey's proposed strike moratorium looks set to fail for lack of any monitoring mechanism. Alongside, an intensifying Ukrainian deep-strike campaign inside Russia (near-certain to continue) and grinding Russian territorial gains define a Russia-Ukraine war still firmly in escalation mode.
Seldon's Analysis:
My fact-check confirms Ukraine could lose 1.5-2.5M tonnes/month with Greater Odesa impaired, and fresh strikes on Chornomorsk grain port were reported Aug 8. The Skeptic approved (risk 74). This provides a complementary, longer-horizon (90-day) economics forecast alongside the 30-day Russian-export item, capturing both sides of the ~25% of global wheat trade under simultaneous stress. I keep the economist's 0.65: the physical impairment case is strong, but a 90-day window gives more room for partial corridor recovery or drone-defense adaptation than the 30-day Russian forecast, so I do not push higher. Note the Ukraine agriculture ministry has also flagged 'alternate routes,' a genuine mitigant that caps confidence. Pillars: trade flow disruptions, supply/demand dynamics.