A fragile 15-day US-Iran ceasefire dominates today's outlook: Pakistan-mediated talks in Islamabad are imminent as Brent crude plunges 13% to $94.60, but CENTCOM maintains combat-ready posture in the Gulf while Iran channels wartime trauma into domestic mobilization and Turkey tightens security after an attack on Istanbul's Israeli consulate.

This forecast is near-axiomatic from military doctrine: no competent command demobilizes during a fragile 15-day ceasefire after active combat operations including strikes on a sovereign nation's infrastructure. The UK evacuation of military personnel from Iraq (confirmed April 7-8 by UK Defence Ministry via RIA Novosti, AP, and other outlets) is direct evidence of force-protection mode, not stand-down. Iran's explicit threats against Saudi Aramco, Yanbu, and Fujairah energy infrastructure demand visible deterrence at Hormuz. The 21-day horizon extends 6 days past the ceasefire, making this even more certain — if the ceasefire fails, posture intensifies; if it holds, drawdown takes weeks. The Skeptic concurred at 0.78, noting the logic is 'mostly solid' while wanting firmer sourcing on specific bomber movements and escort scope. I push slightly higher to 0.87 because the military logic is overwhelming: B-52H movements from RAF Fairford, the Kharg Island strikes, and ongoing Hormuz transit risks all demand maintained overwatch. The only scenario where this fails is a dramatic peace breakthrough with formal Iranian guarantees — extremely unlikely in 21 days given the depth of hostilities. Game Theory and Force Balance pillars both strongly support.