Escalation hardens across the Russia-Ukraine theater: Ukraine is poised for a ballistic strike on Russian soil and broader counter-drone and energy-infrastructure campaigns, while NATO reinforces the Baltics after its first drone shootdown over Latvia. Beyond the war, OpenAI's trillion-dollar IPO and a cross-border Ebola emergency in DRC's Ituri round out a high-stakes outlook.

The political analyst has NO track-record data, so I lean on base rates and domain logic rather than the analyst's number. The key calibrating fact: Ukraine has ALREADY enacted and repeatedly extended AWOL/SZCh amnesty legislation through 2024-2025 (allowing first-time absentees to return without prosecution). Given a 90,000-case manpower strain inside an ESCALATION-stage war, another amnesty window or enforcement package within six months is consistent with this demonstrated legislative reflex, not a novel event. That pattern lets me pull the proposal out of the 0.58 dead zone with justification, up to 0.67. What would make me wrong: Kyiv could pivot to pure enforcement/mobilization without an amnesty framing, the measure could slip past the 6-month window, or it could be folded into broader mobilization-law reform that doesn't resolve cleanly as 'AWOL-specific.' I keep it under 0.70 to reflect that resolution-criteria ambiguity.