Second-order shocks from the Iran war dominate today's outlook — Ukraine extends its deep-strike cadence against southern Russian drone plants, the EU rehearses defense without Washington, Iran's named threat raises real postponement risk for the UAE's $30B Stargate AI complex, and energy-shock-driven load-shedding and displacement stress Pakistan and Lebanon — while a leaked NSA/Anthropic deployment signals a cascade of classified AI disclosures ahead.

Base rate analysis is decisive here: Ukraine struck drone/aviation/port targets in this corridor multiple times in recent months (Taganrog UAV plant, Tuapse port, prior drone raids on Rostov infrastructure). With 45 days of runway and an operational tempo of roughly one significant deep-strike every 10-20 days against southern Russian industrial nodes, the probability a single qualifying event occurs is very high. The Russia-Ukraine chain (2023 clusters, 33 days) remains in DEVELOPMENT with mutual-attrition and Ukraine-rear-pressure interpretations jointly holding ~65% of density matrix weight. Self-calibration: my military sector Brier is weak (0.258, over by 18pp), so I compress from an intuitive ~0.88 down to 0.78. The military analyst (weight 0.52, strongest agent on this topic) is well inside the credible range. Skeptic risk 74 supports inclusion.